Last time I am log in to this blog, there was a search “technology S-curve”. It was interesting, but if I am not mistaken, indeed I’ve discussed a bit in this article. But, maybe it’s better if we discussed again.
so, s-curve is designed for the curves of sigmoid shape. Sigmoid curve, commonly abbreviated to s-curve is a curve beginning with a phase of initiation, which then have called the growth phase (therefore, its acceleration is higher than the previous stage) and then followed by a phase of maturity (maturity). Then covered with a phase of decline ..
nah, this cycle is in what areas of knowledge? for example, product lifecycle, human life cycle, and likewise with the technology. When we integrate the concept of s-curve, as mentioned above, with the technology, it means that the role of technology in the lives of human beings also have the stages of each the same stages of another cycle.
Technology cycle begins with the penetration of new technologies into society. In this phase, the technology used by certain peoples. Since the number of units still lack the technology, its users are also few and usually, the price is still expensive. For example, such as the existence of BlackBerry (approximately 5million rupiah if i am not mistaken) at the beginning of its existence in Indonesia. The price is still expensive, which uses still certain peoples, but immediately climbed to the existence of growth phase in the technology cycle.
Then, on the next phase When the seller technological (mainly shops) realized that, more complete this technological gadgets may be provided in their shops, so the buyer will be searching and buy these goods. So, the price began to decline (as I know, BB price nowadays is about 3 million rupiah), along with growing demand and increasing competition among providers BB stores. According to the law of demand, the more who demand, while the competition to get buyers increasingly stringent, then the price’s tendency is to decreases.
As yet there are radical technological innovation (ie: a lot of changes / differences compared to the existing advanced technologies), while the longer the market increasingly saturated with providers and purchasers, the market growth rate itself is decreasing. Can be even up to 0%. Now, in times of stagnant growth that began this phase, called the phase of maturity (maturity).
When demand is even declining, due to saturation for the products, or have started to appear more innovative new technologies (although only incremental innovations, ie: the level of innovation that led to changes only slightly compared with the latest technology), the technology cycle has begun entering the decline stage.
Well, that was the story about the cycle of the stages of technology, which also associated with the demand & supply of goods, and the price of the goods themselves. Then, with all these things (which of course is different for each different technology) then there are benefits to be gained by both parties, ie sellers and buyers of the technology the technology. In the eyes of buyers and users of technology, of course, there will be a technological age can be predicted along with the presence of incremental innovations in the technology field. For example for computer technology. To my knowledge, the age of technology is only about three years. which means that, after three years, the new technology will have emerged. And may be, habits to use that computer technology has begun to change. In the eyes of technology providers, technology absorption in the market can be used to regulate product release schedule. So, after the product A decreased absorption by the market, technology providers can come up with more innovative technologies. So that companies do not really have its products has decreased in terms of absorption by the market.